Sunday, June 15, 2008

BNS (one to watch this week)


BNS pulled back to test 50 which was resistance on the way up.
Stochastics indicate timing is good to continue and upward swing.
60 and 30 minute charts suggest an entry below Friday's close may be possible if I can catch it as it turns again up.
Stop loss @ 50.35 and initial profit target of 52.25 for a 2:1 reward:risk ratio
Concern:  Some other banks are still in down trend.

Thursday, June 12, 2008

Trading Plan

Trading Style
Swing trading with some day trading when the opportunity allows.
Primary time frame for choosing equities to trade will be daily for both swing and day trades.
When day trading chosen direction is based on daily chart but entered and monitored on smaller time frames.

Trade Setups
Trend retracement setups, reversal setups (extended trends)
Alan Farley’s Master Swing Trading setups
Candle sticks

Money Management
I’m a big believer in the Expectancy formula.
E = AveWin*WLr – AveLoss*(1-WLr)

This highlights the importance of keeping your losses small, letting your profits run and maximizing your Win Loss ratio.

AveLoss should be no more than 1R (accepted risk prior to entering trade) and ensured with a stop loss order.

WLr is improved with strict adherence to trade setup rules and proper execution of stop and profit taking exits.

AveWin is managed with initial profit taking rules and proper trade setup.

When trade is entered a stop loss must be entered and initial profit taking target selected. Stop loss orders and initial profit targets must not be moved farther from entry once entered.

Position Sizing
Try to set risk(R) within 125 - 175 range averaging ~150
Total portfolio risk should be no greater than 3R.

Weekly / Daily routine
Each week I develop a list of 5 – 10 stocks that are setting up as good long and short candidates for the coming week. I also maintain a running commentary on the major indices and how they are setting up for the coming week.
The stock list and indices commentary present me with a plan of which stocks I will closely watch in the following week. If my projected views of the indices follow up to be true I will have a narrow selection of stocks (as well as the index ETFs) to trade.

Trading Rules
1. Enter stop loss order.
2. Define initial profit target before position is entered.
3. Stop loss orders never to be moved farther from entry.
4. Profit targets never to be moved farther from entry.
5. Don’t over trade. (How do I recognize this?)
6. Don’t chase the trend.

Wednesday, June 11, 2008

Why and what I blog

After seeing other trader blog sites I came to the conclusion that blogging is a great way to help focus my ideas and concepts on how I will approach my trading.
Over time I will be able to monitor the evolution of my trading concepts as well as the success or failure of different ideas.

I don't expect viewers to my blog outside of myself and the occasional friend I let know.... but no problem if others visit.  Please comment if you drop by.